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The Phillies and Mets have said their piece on who is the best in the National League East.
Carlos Beltran: "We are!"
The Phillies: "Uh, whatever, dude."
But has anyone asked the computer?
Baseball Prospectus has. It recently released its PECOTA projected standings for 2008. It has the Mets in first place at 96-66, the Braves in second at 86-76, and the Phillies in third at 84-78.
PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. It is a system that projects player performance based on comparisons of thousands of players' seasons. It analyzes similarities with past seasons based on players' statistics, height, weight, age and other factors.
The program takes the projected player statistics, figures out runs scored and runs allowed for each team, and determines that team's projected record.
Baseball Prospectus projects the Phillies' offense to again be one of the best in baseball, with 838 runs. But pitching is the team's downfall, much like it almost was last season. It projects the Phillies to allow 804 runs, the fifth-highest total in the National League.
The Mets, on the other hand, project to score 809 runs and allow only 665.
The Phillies' rotation looks like this: Cole Hamels (14-8, 3.45 ERA last season), Brett Myers (11-7, 3.83), Kyle Kendrick (11-14, 5.35), Jamie Moyer (8-7, 4.25), and Adam Eaton (7-8, 5.18).
Compare that to the Mets' rotation: Johan Santana (17-8, 2.94), Pedro Martinez (9-6, 3.37), John Maine (10-9, 4.03), Oliver Perez (9-8, 4.22), and Orlando Hernandez (6-6, 4.08).
The 2007 PECOTA projected standings picked the Phillies to finish first at 87-75 and the Mets to finish second at 85-77. In reality, the Phillies finished first at 89-73, the Mets second at 88-74. The 2006 PECOTA projected standings picked the Mets to finish first at 88-74 and the Phillies second at 86-76. In reality, the Mets finished first at 97-65, the Phillies second at 85-77.
Todd Zolecki,Phila Inquirer
LENNY: Anyone surprised at BRAVES #2 send in your predictions and comments!
Tags: Lenny's Blog Select Category Seasons Over!
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